Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Currency Carry Trade

The recent and ongoing global financial crisis was precipitated due to a lot of factors, a few of which I actually know about and all of which I am sure no single person knows about. Albeit everybody would agree a part of it was due to the collapse of the American consumer market, especially the housing market where individuals could no longer afford the monthly payments on the houses they purchased on loan.

The other factor that I am aware about is the effect of the Yen Carry Trade. Today I read an article in Investopedia, which pretty much explains in basic terms what it means with an example.

What does it mean
A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates - which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use.

Here's an example of a "yen carry trade": a trader borrows 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let's assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% (4.5% - 0%), as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then she can stand to make a profit of 45%.

The big risk in a carry trade is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Using the example above, if the U.S. dollar was to fall in value relative to the Japanese yen, then the trader would run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately.
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